#1823 · Probability · Conditional probability

Testimony of Ten Witnesses

Ten witnesses, each of whom makes but one false statement in six, agree in asserting that a certain event took place; shew that the odds are five to one in favour of the truth of their statement, even although the $a$ $p r i or i$ probability of the event is as small as $\frac{1}{5 ^{9} + 1}$ .

~20 minProof · checked by AIconditional probabilityBayes theoremreliability of witnesses

H. S. Hall & S. R. Knight, Higher Algebra (1891) · Ch. XXXII. Probability, Examples XXXII.d, No. 19

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