In a certain game, you pick a card from a standard deck…

In a certain game, you pick a card from a standard deck of 52 cards. If the card is a spade, you win. If the card is not a spade, the person replaces the card to the deck, reshuffles, and draws again. The person keeps repeating that process until he picks a spade, and the point is to measure how many draws did it take before the person picked a spade and won. What is the probability that there will be at least three draws involved in a win, i.e. someone picking her first spade on the third draw or later?

AQuA-RAT — Algebra Question Answering with Rationales (Ling et al., DeepMind, 2017) · train #20994